Roland Garros 2018

[miloolja]

Konacno! [emoji847] [emoji471]

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[miloolja]

[dekkard]

Nije ipak vredno onih duda. [emoji41]

[Stefan-kobe]

Po meni Thiem ce imati sansu jedino ako sutra otkine prvi set i mec se prekine zbog kise, a vrlo izvesno je da ce se to desiti јер је najavljena kisa u popodnevim satima. E sad pitanje je kako ce i Rafa uci u mec, do sad je u svaki mec ulazio loso i stegnuto, mucio se na servis... Mada Rafa je to, kad treba on je najbolji. Nervira me jedino sto ce mozda biti prebaceno finale za ponedeljak, posto zbog prognoze cisto sumnjam da ce se kompletiraju bar tri seta, o vise i da ne govorim.

[jacques9]

Najnovija vremenska prognoza od danas prikazuje kišu tek poslije 17 sati. Da li če to biti tek neki pljusak? Vidjet čemo. Svakako postoji velika mogučnost, da če se meč prekinuti zbog kiše.

Pritisak finala je velik i za Rafu. I prošle godine nije baš briljirao na početku polufinala te finala a kasnije odigrao savršeno. Bojim se da če Rafa započeti meč stegnut uz loše serviranje. Ako na početku izdruži u egalu (Npr. 3:3 u 1.setu) ima velike šanse da dobije 1.set

Da li postoji mogučnost, da Thiem odigra meč zivota? PO logici ne bi smelo, da bude tako. Pritisak prvog finala GS turnira nije mala stvar.

[jacques9]

2018 Roland Garros: Men’s Final Preview

G’day from Roland Garros,
Let’s lay out cards right on the table ♥️♣️♦️♠️.
Dominic Thiem is the only player to have beaten Rafael Nadal on clay in the past two seasons. Here they are…
1. 2018 Madrid Quarter Finals. Thiem def. Nadal 7-5, 6-3
2. 2017 Rome Quarter Finals. Thiem def. Nadal 6-4, 6-3
Now, I want you to quickly dismiss their importance.
Nadal is 49-2 on clay the past two seasons. It is significant that the only guy to beat him on the crushed Earth will be standing across the net from him this afternoon.
Does Thiem have a plan to beat Nadal today? He says he does!
“I know how to play against him. I have a plan,” Thiem said of facing Nadal. “If I want to beat him, I have to play that way like I did in Rome and in Madrid. But I’m also aware that here it’s tougher. He likes the conditions more here than in Madrid, for sure. Best of five is also a different story.”
The three most important factors today are:
• COURT: Philippe Chatrier is a high bouncing trampoline that accentuates Nadal’s heavy spin.
• FIVE: Best of 5 sets is a completely different animal than best of 3. Nadal has way more time to cycle through a series of potential winning game plans in a best of 5 set match.
• FINAL: Extra tension. Extra excitement. Extra atmosphere. Extra craziness.
Focus on these three elements instead. Nadal is 6-3 career against Thiem, and two of those wins have come here at Roland Garros.
Nadal v Thiem: At Roland Garros
1. 2017 Semi Final. Nadal def. Thiem 6-3, 6-4, 6-0.
2. 2014 Rd 64. Nadal def Thiem 6-2, 6-2, 6-3
In their 2017 match, Nadal saved 7/8 break points and won 76% (19/25) of his 2nd serve points. Thiem saved 4/10 break points and only won 37% (14/38) of his 2nd serve points. Expect similar pain this afternoon.
So let’s dive into some metrics that have played out for both Nadal and Thiem in their first six matches – a focus on what matters!

RALLY LENGTH
This is a very important aspect of the final to understand – so you watch the match with the right lens! More points will be played in the 0-4 shot rally length than the other two COMBINED! It’s just how our sport is organized, even with the two best players in the world facing each other.
Nadal: Points Played To The Final
• 0-4 Shots = 55% (607 points)
• 5-8 Shots = 27% (298 points)
• 9+ Shots = 18% (192 points)
Thiem: Points Played To The Final
• 0-4 Shots = 65% (773 points)
• 5-8 Shots = 23% (276 points)
• 9+ Shots = 11% (133 points)
So where do these two dominant clay court players find their advantage? Which rally length do they accumulate the most amount of points? It’s the 0-4 rally length – like it always is!!!
The following breakdown is their plus/minus ratio. For example, Nadal won 342 points so far in the 0-4 shot rally length. He lost 265. That makes him +77 in that rally length. You will see for both players that they craft more advantage (win more points) in 0-4 than any other rally length.
Nadal & Thiem: +/-
• 0-4 Shots = Nadal 77 / Thiem 91
• 5-8 Shots = Nadal 60 / Thiem 40
• 9+ Shots = 11% Nadal 34 / Thiem 23
Whoever wins the 0-4 shot rally length has a 95% chance of winning the match. That was the percentage for the overall tournament last year. So players that won their match also won 0-4 95% of the time. It’s almost a lock. And it needs to drive your practice court!
I see Rafa winning the 0-4 rally length because he will “steal” a lot of points from Thiem’s 2nd serve, and also finish a lot of points in the three shot rally length (His own Serve +1)
ADVANTAGE: NADAL

SERVING
Let’s start with Dominic Thiem.
Thiem Serving: To The Final
• 1st Serves In = 65%
• 1st Serve Points Won = 78%
• 2nd Serve Serve Points Won = 57%
• Fastest 1st Serve = 224km/h
• Fastest 2nd Serve = 176km/h
• Average 1st Serve Speed = 181km/h
• Average 2nd Serve Speed = 155km/h
• Aces 33
• Double Faults 29
• Break Points Saved = 21/30
• Broken = 9 times
The 29 double faults in 6 matches are a concern. That’s right around five free points a match. Thiem can afford to cough up one or two vs. Rafa, and it better be at 40-0, otherwise donating too many points will make it so much easier for Rafa to break him.
Nadal Serving: To The Final
• 1st Serves In = 60%
• 1st Serve Points Won = 73%
• 2nd Serve Serve Points Won = 61%
• Fastest 1st Serve = 200km/h
• Fastest 2nd Serve = 174km/h
• Average 1st Serve Speed = 178km/h
• Average 2nd Serve Speed = 148km/h
• Aces 14
• Double Faults 17
• Break Points Saved 35/45
• Broken = 10 times.
When you compare apples to apples on all of these stats, Thiem has the slight edge, but only just. Both guys are performing well in this area. It is surprising that Rafa has more double faults than aces.
ADVANTAGE = THIEM

RETURNING
Rafa is leading the tournament in Return Games Won and Return Points Won against 1st serves. That’s substantial. If you are Thiem, that will make your head spin!
Nadal Returning: To The Final
• Return Points Won vs. 1st Serve = 43% (No. 1)
• Return Points Won vs. 2nd Serve = 57%
• Return Winners = 5
• Break Points Won = 36/76
• Return Games Won = 44% (36/81) (No. 1)
Thiem Returning: To The Final
• Return Points Won vs. 1st Serve = 36%
• Return Points Won vs. 2nd Serve = 58% (T8th best)
• Return Winners = 7
• Break Points Won = 35/72
• Return Games Won = 37% (35/95) (T8th best)
Nadal is the best returner on clay in the history of our sport. He is producing “those” kind of numbers to the final.
ADVANTAGE = NADAL

RALLYING
Nobody has won a higher percentage of baseline points at Roland Garros in 2018 than Rafael Nadal. This is his domain. This is his court. This is his tournament. And the baseline is the beating heart of this final. The main weapon from the back of the court is the forehand.
In today’s final, look for Nadal to run around his backhand in the Deuce court and take that forehand inside out back through the Deuce court wide to Thiem’s forehand for winner after winner. That’s his favorite pattern.
When Nadal is hitting forehands in the Deuce court, he mainly goes cross court, and then every now and then will pull the trigger down the line.
Nadal Rallying: To The Final
• Forehand Winners = 128
• Forehand Errors = 148
• Backhand Winners = 40
• Backhand Errors = 128
• Baseline Points Won = 58.9% (454/770) (No. 1)
Thiem Rallying: To The Final
• Forehand Winners = 87
• Forehand Errors = 161
• Backhand Winners = 43
• Backhand Errors = 163
• Baseline Points Won = 55.8% (397/711) (No. 2)
I can’t see any way that Thiem has a higher win percentage from the baseline than Nadal on this court – in this final.
ADVANTAGE = NADAL

APPROACHING
Both guys are not going to take too many risks at the front of the court in this match. They will just be coming forward to clean up. With that said, this is a nice area for both players to find some extra points for one main reason – they both like to rally from very DEEP in the court. When you see one guy move way back to defend, the opponent needs to sneak in and knock an easy volley off. It’s tough to ass from the stands!
Net Points Won
• Nadal = 70% (71/101)
• Thiem = 65% (72/111)
ADVANTAGE = EVEN

BETWEEN THE POINTS
THIS is where Nadas has a big advantage. So many times during this tournament I have watched him in what are normally “quieter” moments around the court when the point is not in play – and he is STILL revving himself up! He is constantly looking at Carlos Moya to create eye contact and energy with his coach.
Also, Nadal is fixating on his routine between the points. He loves to go and clean the line with his foot. He loves to walk way back and towel off. Not step on the lines. Leave through the middle of the court. Adjust his shorts. Adjust his shirt. Wipe sweat away. He is sticking to his routines like crazy, which helps to not let things get sideways. Control everything at all times.
Thiem, on the other hand, can get very negative. He can yell and scream and lose control, and then throw in some desperate, low percentage shots. He should have lost the 2nd set Tie-Break to Marco Cecchinato in the semi because of his negative attitude and outbursts. It could have cost him the match.
ADVANTAGE = NADAL

SUMMARY
Nadal wins this match in straight sets.
I expect Nadal to have 20-30 minutes in this match where things are not going his way. Where Thiem laces some backhands down the line, or crushes some big run around forehands.
Stay the course. Weather the storm.
Rafa wants this title SOOOOO BADLY!!! His body language suggests it. His enthusiasm shows it. Heck, even when he sits down between games he is still looking at his coaches box busting out a big VAMOS!
Let’s hope this match turns into a five-set thriller… but the odds are against it.

[pecaros]

Nadalovci su toliko sigurni u pobedu da svako malo gvirmu u vremensku prognozu
Sa druge strane Timotije izjavi da ima plan što malkice zabrinjava jer njega i plan mi nekako teško spojiti.
Uglavnom kako BBC javlja trebalo bi da pada a ako već mora neka bude ona sitna, dosadna a ipak ne previše jaka da izazove prekid.

[jacques9]

Nadalovci su sigurni jedino u to, da je sitna in ne previše jaka kiša zbog koje se ne bi prekidao meč najgora opcija za Nadala.

[miloolja]

Nije joj prvi put ovi da prima infuziju posle napornog meca...

tt

sigpic

Pablo Sandoval: A guy can change anything.. his face, his home, his family, his girlfriend, his religion, his God.
But there's one thing he can't change... he can't change his passion.

[Mr. Wolf]

11. RG

[NI]

Ocekivao sam da ce Nadal da pobijedi ali nisam ocekivao da ce to biti tako lako. Tri su razloga.

Prvo, Nadal je bio odlican. Sve price da nije u formi su nonsens. U odlicnoj je formi i jednaki sampion kao uvijek. Sposoban je da napravi prave prilagodbe potrebne za mec i protivnika i da igra odlicno vazne poene.

Drugo, vremenski uslovi su bili povoljnji za Nadala nego je bilo najavljeno.

Trece, Thiem je usao u mec uvjeren da ima sansi, umjesto da udje u mec sa ciljem da namuci Nadala, pa ako se ukaze prilika onda moze i vise. Zato, jednom kad je vidi da nema igru, psiholoscki je pao i izgubio 5 gemova za redom.

[Arnel.S]

Kakva masina, kakav sampion.
Tesko da postoji teza stvar u sportu od te da se dobije Nadal na RG-u!
86-2!

[Prle!]

Kakva masina, kakav sampion.
Tesko da postoji teza stvar u sportu od te da se dobije Nadal na RG-u!
86-2!

Teško da je ikada i postojala. Toliko je dobar da je pomalo i nepošteno.

[NI]

Na sljaci je on neponovljiv. U to nema sumnje

[Lord Samuraj]

Prevelika dominacija. Tesko da ce ga i iduce dvije godine ovdje neko dobiti. Samo da ne bude povreda.

Schwartzman bi vjerovatno igrao finale ovdje da nije ranije naletio na Rafaela.